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This article studies large and local large deviations for sums of i.i.d. real-valued random variables in the domain of attraction of an $\alpha$-stable law, $\alpha\in (0,2]$, with emphasis on the case $\alpha=2$. There are two different scenarios: either the deviation is realised via a collective behaviour with all summands contributing to the deviation (a Gaussian scenario), or a single summand is atypically large and contributes to the deviation (a one-big-jump scenario). Such results are known when $\alpha \in (0,2)$ (large deviations always follow a one big-jump scenario) or when the random variables admit a moment of order $2+\delta$ for some $\delta>0$. We extend these results, including in particular the case where the right tail is regularly varying with index $-2$ (treating cases with infinite variance in the domain of attraction of the normal law). We identify the threshold for the transition between the Gaussian and the one-big-jump regimes; it is slightly larger when considering local large deviations compared to integral large deviations. Additionally, we complement our results by describing the behaviour of the sum and of the largest summand conditionally on a (local) large deviation, for any $\alpha\in (0,2]$, both in the Gaussian and in the one-big-jump regimes. As an application, we show how our results can be used in the study of condensation phenomenon in the zero-range process at the critical density, extending the range of parameters previously considered in the literature.

We study the geodesic convexity of various energy and entropy functionals restricted to (non-geodesically convex) submanifolds of Wasserstein spaces with their induced geometry. We prove a variety of convexity results by means of a simple general principle, which holds in the metric space setting, and which crucially requires no knowledge of the structure of geodesics in the submanifold: If the EVI gradient flow of a functional exists and leaves the submanifold invariant, then the restriction of the functional to the submanifold is geodesically convex. This leads to short new proofs of several known results, such as one of Carlen and Gangbo on strong convexity of entropy on sphere-like submanifolds, and several new results, such as the λ-convexity of entropy on the space of couplings of λ-log-concave marginals. Along the way, we develop sufficient conditions for existence of geodesics in Wasserstein submanifolds. Submanifold convexity results lead systematically to improvements of Talagrand and HWI inequalities which we speculate to be closely related to concentration of measure estimates for conditioned empirical measures, and we prove one rigorous result in this direction in the Carlen-Gangbo setting.

This thesis intends to make a contribution to the theories of algebraic cycles and moduli spaces over the real numbers. In the study of the subvarieties of a projective algebraic variety, smooth over the field of real numbers, the cycle class map between the Chow ring and the equivariant cohomology ring plays an important role. The image of the cycle class map remains difficult to describe in general; we study this group in detail in the case of real abelian varieties. To do so, we construct integral Fourier transforms on Chow rings of abelian varieties over any field. They allow us to prove the integral Hodge conjecture for one-cycles on complex Jacobian varieties, and the real integral Hodge conjecture modulo torsion for real abelian threefolds. For the theory of real algebraic cycles, and for several other purposes in real algebraic geometry, it is useful to have moduli spaces of real varieties to our disposal. Insight in the topology of a real moduli space provides insight in the geometry of a real variety that defines a point in it, and the other way around. In the moduli space of real abelian varieties, as well as in the Torelli locus contained in it, we prove density of the set of moduli points attached to abelian varieties containing an abelian subvariety of fixed dimension. Moreover, we provide the moduli space of stable real binary quintics with a hyperbolic orbifold structure, compatible with the period map on the locus of smooth quintics. This structure identifies the moduli space of stable real binary quintics with a non-arithmetic ball quotient.